Cape Market's Christmas Present
Welcome back to another episode of Freight Up, the podcast where we deep-dive into the latest trends in the shipping and commodities markets.
The episode kicks off with an exciting revelation of record cleared volumes in the Cape size contracts on the 29th of November.
The substantial jump in spot rates and the notional value of trades underscored the fervent activity in the market, prompting eager anticipation for what might unfold in 2024.
We'll give you a detailed breakdown of the driving forces behind this market frenzy, including factors such as the influx of financial players, post-rainy season uptick, higher-than-expected volumes from our major players.
Comparative Analysis: 2024 vs. 2008
Drawing from historical data, the episode delves into a comparison between the current market state and the monumental events of 2008.
Spot rates, year-to-date figures, and notable trades were dissected to provide an insightful juxtaposition of the past and present, offering a nuanced perspective on the market's evolution over time.
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Hao Pei's Insights on Iron Ore and 2024 Market Forecast
The episode features a thought-provoking discussion with Hao Pei, who shared his assessment of the iron ore market's recent trends and his outlook for 2024.
An analysis of the iron ore index's fluctuations, combined with a projection of future volatility, paint a comprehensive picture of what lies ahead.
Hao Pei's insights into the challenges and opportunities that the market may encounter in 2024 shed light on the potential scenarios that could unfold, providing listeners with valuable foresight into this crucial commodity's trajectory.
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Timestamps
00:00 Financial players bring liquidity, boost volumes. Iron ore rises, concerns over Chinese property.
05:36 Iron ore market shows volatility and weakness.
07:52 Iron ore index forecast: 2024 prices and challenges
10:22 Close-up view of freight operations.
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[00:00:00] The Cape Market got an early Christmas present with the highest cleared volumes last Wednesday,
[00:00:05] 29th November. But could we be gearing up for an even hotter 2024? In addition,
[00:00:11] we have Halpei giving his view of the Iron or Market price in 2024. So stay tuned, we've got
[00:00:17] your week highlights on Freight Up.
[00:00:19] Freight Up!
[00:00:22] Hello and welcome to Freight Up. My name's Renanda and I'll be your host as we navigate the seas wondering what happened here. What caused this? Well, there are a myriad of reasons for this, but a few that we'd like to point out to you. There has been a growth of financial players in the market that has helped bring new liquidity in. With the post rainy season, pickup inflows of bucks that have bolstered volumes on derivatives. Both Valle and Australian volumes have been
[00:01:43] higher than expected jumping up before the year end. Low iron ore stocks and restocking efforts in $124 per day. With a year to date of $138,676 per day, having been at a year high of $233,988 per day. Compare this to this Wednesday spot 29th November 2023 and 24th November 2008 amounts to an equivalent of 53 million tons and 100 million tons respectively. entering into a bit of a slow period with about a $2 change reported during the report week. What's going on there? And more importantly, do you have any ideas on what the direction or volatility will look like? I think $2 change looks like a change for like a few minutes in
[00:05:40] iron the market as usual. But that's the fact December with peak iron demand decreasing and steel margin reached negative 65 grand per turn. It's improving slightly from negative 91 percent, but it's the maybe third-party agencies, some other brokers, some of the trading firms, some mills, anyone participants in this market. And we think next year will be more challenging and more wider in the rent bond. So it can So it's naturally support the high of volatile asset. So that's our generate view of the market levels in 2020-2024. But we think the average level of iron or index is going to be higher in 2024.
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